A Polymarket temperature market asks a single question: what will the highest (or lowest) temperature be at one named weather station, on one calendar day, in that station's own local time. You buy the bucket you think the day lands in. Each bucket is one degree wide in Celsius cities and two degrees Fahrenheit in United States cities.
Settlement uses the official reading from the station named in the market's own rules, not a forecast and not a nearby city average. The station matters: two airports in the same city can differ by more than a full bucket on the same afternoon.
The day runs midnight to midnight in the station's timezone. A market titled for the 24th can still be open while it is the 23rd where you are. This is the single most common way traders misread a market.
A daily maximum only ever rises. Once the afternoon peak has passed and the temperature is falling, the day's high is effectively fixed even though the market has not settled yet. Before the peak window, a running maximum says very little: the day can still climb past it.
| Market type | Question | Settles on |
|---|---|---|
| Daily high | Highest temperature that day | Official station maximum |
| Daily low | Lowest temperature that day | Official station minimum |