Polymarket air quality markets, and how they settle
An air quality market asks what a city's daily PM2.5 figure will be. PM2.5 is fine particulate matter measured in micrograms per cubic metre, averaged over the day by the reporting authority.
What the terminal shows
The current reading and the daily mean so far.
The category band the reading falls in.
A smoke flag when the reporting source indicates wildfire smoke.
The market buckets and their implied probabilities.
PollyWetter reports the measured number and the band the reporting authority assigns. It does not give health advice or a health verdict of any kind.
Why the daily mean moves slowly
Because the settled figure is an average across the day, each new hour moves it less as the day goes on. An alarming single hour late in the day often barely shifts the daily mean.
Risk. Prediction markets carry risk and you can lose money. Nothing here is financial advice. Past results do not predict future results.